Straw market outlook

Straw supplies remained tight in 2024: reduced cropping areas and weather variability have led to price volatility. Market conditions for 2025 remain uncertain, with ongoing cost pressures and dependency on weather influencing production and pricing.

Key points

• Straw prices may stay elevated due to tight supply, high contracting costs and reduced cropping areas
• Winter cropping is set to fall for 2025, while spring-sown crops face yield risks due to weather variability
• Livestock farmers will need to budget for higher straw bedding costs for the remainder of this winter

Wheat straw

Tight straw supplies from 2023 carried over into 2024, with reduced cropping areas adding further strain on the market. A break in the weather allowed 88% of wheat to be harvested by August, creating a favourable window for baling and alleviating some of the supply pressure.

However, by June 2024, wheat straw prices had peaked at £90/t for big bales before easing to £60/t as concerns over supply eased.

The Early Bird Survey (EBS) of planting intentions shows a fall in winter cropping for harvest 2025. At a national level, wheat and winter barley areas are all set to fall this harvest, with increasing areas of spring wheat, spring barley and spring oats.

However, spring-sown crops are more susceptible to spring and summer weather (especially dry conditions), so straw yields can be more variable. Stagnant grain prices do not provide much of an incentive to max out spring crop areas.

Despite this, EBS forecasts indicate a 5% year-on-year increase in harvested wheat area, even with considerable regional variation in the weather during drilling. However, wheat acreage will still fall 5% below the 2019–2023 five-year average. Stabilising input costs, including fuel and fertiliser, have alleviated some production pressures.

These mixed factors suggest that while the outlook for wheat straw production in 2025 shows some improvement compared to 2024, overall market conditions remain uncertain.

The combination of reduced winter cropping, variable spring yields and ongoing market pressures will require careful management by arable farmers to balance production and costs in the coming season.

Figure 1. GB ex farm hay and straw prices 2020–2024

Source: British Hay and Straw

Barley straw

Barley and wheat straw prices typically track each other closely, a trend that continued in 2024. Barley straw commands a small premium due to its higher quality and more limited supply. We saw a 13% increase in barley area in 2024, driven by spring planting. Spring crops are more susceptible to weather; this caused variable straw yields, which added pressure to prices.

Spring barley area is predicted to be 13% down in 2025 according to the EBS, while winter barley is set to be down by just 1% from last year. Barley straw prices peaked at £96/t in May 2024 before easing to £61/t in October as supply concerns subsided.

Over the next six months, prices appear supported at current levels of £77/t for barley and wheat at £70/t (as of 16/02/25). With the rest of winter ahead and the need for bedding and forage, we are likely to see tightening supply and upward pressure on prices.

Hay

Straw prices have aligned with hay prices. This presents challenges for farmers as more turn to straw as a bulking ingredient. Some relief is expected from the 2024 forage harvest, which should ease supply pressures.

The increasing uptake of agri-environmental schemes will be something to watch. These schemes include actions that may affect hay and straw production, because the payments offered incentivise farmers to repurpose land traditionally used for this purpose in favour of environmentally beneficial activities. The extent to which this impacts production is unclear; data on Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) uptake from Defra is expected to be released in February.

Continued tight supply

Looking to future years, a new higher price level for straw and hay could be realised in the market. This would be the result of supply conditions, compounded by increased cost pressures, ongoing weather challenges and a pattern of reduced cropping area.

For prices to return to 2023 lows of just over £40/t–£50/t, an exceptional baling season producing an oversupply would be required.

Contracting costs

While key input costs like diesel, fertiliser and baling wrap have eased from their 2022 highs, this hasn’t translated into reduced contractor pricing.

National Association of Agricultural Contractors (NAAC) data highlights a continued rise in contracting baler prices between 2021 and 2024, with the cost of wrapping seeing even sharper increases. This reinforces the prices at levels we are currently seeing (in February 2025).

Contracting baler prices between 2021 and 2024 (£ per bale)

Source: National Association of Agricultural Contractors

Conclusions

The market for straw and hay remains tight, due to supply conditions, reduced cropping areas and ongoing cost challenges. While stabilising input costs provide some relief, weather variability adds uncertainty to future production.

As with most things in farming, the weather will play a critical role: without exceptional harvest conditions, prices are unlikely to return to previous lows.

Farmers and contractors must navigate a landscape of a new price level and continued tight supplies.