Beef market update: European beef production drops by 56,000 tonnes in Q1

Key points

• In Jan-Mar this year EU beef production was down by 3% compared to 2024
• The largest drops in production were seen in northwestern countries severely affected by bluetongue
• Import volumes into the EU-27 were up 11% on the year in Q1, with growth from South American countries driving this

Production

In the first quarter of 2025, beef production across the European Union was down by 3% (56 thousand tonnes) compared to last year, bringing total Q1 production to 1.58 million tonnes.

Monthly European beef production

Source: European Commission.

The reasons behind the reduction in overall production are widespread: including disease, profitability challenges, and structural herd decline, but are especially present in specific individual European States.

The graph below shows the changes in production volumes for Q1 2025 compared to the year earlier for the top ten beef producing countries of the European Union.

Q1 Y-O-Y production change of the top ten EU beef producing countries

Source: European Commission

From this data we can see that the largest reductions in beef volumes have been observed in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

These three countries have reportedly been hit hard by BTV-3 which is likely what has driven the loss of productivity in these western states.

Furthermore, in some regions, European farmers have been incentivised to downscale livestock production, which will be affecting farmer sentiment and impacting decisions.

For example, the EU have approved a €128 million fund to compensate Dutch livestock farmers for voluntarily close their operations to meet nitrogen and nature targets.

However, both Poland and Ireland have seen increased beef production throughout this period, likely driven by strong domestic prices bringing animals forward and a lucrative export market amongst sustained demand.

Indeed, in Q1 this year Poland exported 133,000 tonnes of beef, compared to 125,000 tonnes in 2024.

Trade

Despite reduced beef production, demand for beef on the continent has remained strong.

Imported beef volumes into the EU-27 have risen by 11% year on year to approximately 77,000 tonnes (Jan-Mar), with the UK as the largest supplier of these beef imports.

However, the main growth in import volumes into the EU-27 in Q1 this year has come from South American countries, with an additional 2,200 tonnes (+12% y-o-y) from Brazil, 2,500 tonnes from Argentina (+23% y-o-y), and an additional 1,700 tonnes (+22% y-o-y) from Uruguay.  

Q1 beef import volumes into EU-27 by origin

Source: TDM LLC

What could this mean for the UK?

Falling EU production could offer opportunity for UK beef exports as more product is needed to fulfil demand. However, price will remain a major determining factor.

As of the week ending 13 June the EU average steer price was 609p/kg while the UK average steer price stood 41 pence higher at 650p/kg.

This price disparity could dissuade European importers, potentially opting for more competitively priced product from South America as we have seen in the year so far.

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