Brazil pork market: Production and exports continue to scale new highs in 2025

Key points

• Brazilian pork production is forecast to grow 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, and a further 2.6% in 2026, fuelled by robust export and domestic demand
• Pork remains a preferred protein source, with per capita consumption stabilising between 18.6–18.8 kg
• Brazilian pig meat exports have recorded new highs so far in 2025 (Jan–Sep) at 1.2 Mt so far. Although, the picture is mixed across key destinations

Production

The Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) reports that pork production continues to accelerate in 2025, with production forecast to reach 5.42 Mt, an increase of 2.2% compared to 2024.

This would mark the eighth consecutive year of growth in production. In the first half of 2025, pig slaughtering has increased by 2.5%.

Lower feed costs and firm prices have improved margins, thereby incentivising farmers. Robust domestic and export demand have pushed up pig prices.

The latest livestock survey shows the number of breeding sows has increased marginally year on year to 5.0 million head (+0.6%) and is the highest record for breeding sows in the country.

The upward trajectory is expected to continue in 2026, with pig meat production forecast to touch a record 5.6 Mt, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year.

Consumption

Pork continues to be the third most preferred meat in Brazil, sitting behind chicken and beef. Consumer purchasing decisions in Brazil are driven by price rather than taste and chicken is still a preference over pork.

Per capita consumption of pork increased progressively between 2024 and 2025 from 18.6 kg to 18.7 kg. Near-term demand is likely to get a boost ahead of Christmas and New Year celebrations. It is likely to stabilise between 18.6 kg and 18.8 kg levels next year.

Trade

For the year to date (January–September), total pig meat exports (including offal) from Brazil recorded a new high volume at 1.2 Mt.

This represents an increase of 16% (164,000 t) compared to previous year. Since 2019, Brazil’s pig meat exports have almost doubled in volume.

Falling production costs make Brazilian pork cost competitive on the global market, thereby giving a boost to export demand.

This is further aided by currency devaluation. According to ABPA, exports are forecast to reach 1.45 million tonnes in 2025, an increase of 7.2% compared to 2024.

In 2025 so far, the Philippines has overtaken China as the top buyer of Brazilian pork, with volumes increasing by a significant 73% (113,000 t) year-on-year.

China has reportedly rejected some pork and poultry import shipments from multiple countries, including Brazil. The issue coincided with announced anti-dumping investigations in July 2024.

Exports to Singapore have declined following broader restructuring of Brazil’s exports flow which moved to diversify export destinations rather than focus on key individual importers.

Japan has climbed the rankings, overtaking Hong Kong with a volume gain of 19,000 t. Hong Kong has recorded the smallest change of all the major trading partners, up just 2,700 t.

With increasing access to new markets, there has been remarkable increase in exports to Mexico.

Implications for the UK

Despite the slowing economy in China, offal continues to be a lucrative market. With Brazil losing market share to China amid tariff fallouts, there lies opportunities for UK exporters to further tap into this market.

The latest data for UK pig meat exports (Jan–Jul) show volumes to China have increased by around 21% compared to last year. Our market sources in China confirm that the UK is viewed as a preferred trading partner.

However, one must keep in mind that with Brazil set to reach record pig meat production this year, Brazilian pork displaced from China will likely be diverted to other markets within South East Asia and the Americas.

This will put additional pressure in other key UK export markets and we could see this weigh on prices.

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