Cautious global pork market outlook for 2026

Despite easing feed costs due to record North American crop harvests and favourable planting conditions in South America, growth remains constrained by the influence of trade tensions, disease risks and regulatory challenges.

Producers are prioritising better productivity, biosecurity and heavier carcase weights to offset limited herd expansion.

Europe (EU-27 + UK)

European pork production increased by 3.5% year-on-year (YOY) in July 2025, led by Spain (+7%) and Poland (+5%).

Exports rose 3% YOY, supported by the recent US-China trade tensions. However, prices have weakened since summer due to seasonal demand declines and higher supply.

China imposing antidumping duties on EU27 in September further pressured European pig prices and will likely tighten profit margins into Q4.

The duties cast uncertainty on the region’s exports through Q4, with a short-term supply uplift in China and increased competition, particularly for offal as Brazil pursues broader market access.

However, recent trade data from HMRC shows UK shipments are holding up well.

Production growth is predicted to slow in 2026 as herds contract due to margin pressure amid export headwinds.

China

China’s government has directed producers to cut the national sow herd by 1 million head (2.5%) by early 2026, aiming to support prices, ease competition and improve productivity. The reduction of China’s sow herd is more than enough to offset the growth seen in Brazil.

Short-term oversupply is expected to continue into late 2025 before a 3–5% YOY production decline materializes in 2026.

Rabobank predicts China’s imports to remain flat despite tightening domestic production, since the government plans to prop up domestic prices and limit foreign purchases in the near term.  

Brazil

Brazil continues to outperform global peers, setting new export and revenue records in 2025

Export volumes rose 26% YOY in September, while revenue increased 30%.

Pork production rose 4% in the first half of 2025 and is expected to grow another 2–3% for the full year.

Brazil is the only key producing nation expected to expand its sow herd in 2026, between 3–4% YOY, supported by favourable feed costs and robust international demand.

The outlook for domestic demand remains positive, driven by pork’s position as an affordable protein option compared to high-cost beef.

North America

The USA remains cautious on herd expansion due to high construction costs, disease risks, and uncertain export markets, with the sow herd remaining below 6 million head (-1.3% YOY).

Supply growth in 2026 will rely on productivity gains and higher carcase weights.

Pork prices were 14% above the five-year average in Q3 2025 but are expected to moderate due to seasonal supply increase, declining export growth (-2%) and greater competition from the poultry sector. Exports declined slightly (-0.8% YOY) in July, led by weaker shipments to Mexico -8% YOY.

In Canada, pork production rose 2.9% YOY in Q3 2025 and is on track to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes, mainly driven by higher slaughter rates as weights have remained stable.

Despite strong financial conditions, expansion remains conservative due to high costs and herd health. Export volumes rose 4.8% year-to-date, with gains in Japan and South Korea offsetting weaker sales to the USA and the Philippines.

Mexico continues to face supply constraints amid ongoing disease outbreaks, reducing productivity and tightening margins.

Considering this, production is expected to fall 3–5% in 2025. Pig prices remain high supported by strong demand, elevated beef prices and supply constraints.

However, processors' profitability is eroding since live and wholesale price gaps are narrowing.

Imports have risen around 10% YOY from January to August to offset domestic shortfalls.

While exports fell sharply to Japan and South Korea this was partially compensated by stronger exports to the USA.

Ongoing trade dynamics are expected to influence Mexico’s market through early 2026.

East and Southeast Asia

Japan’s pork consumption continues to decline, pressured by inflation and soaring rice prices that are influencing dietary preferences.

Extreme summer heat caused poor daily weight gain in pigs leading to a decline in production efficiency, although output is expected to recover as cooler weather returns.

Prices fell 13% YOY in August due to weaker demand. High inventories, elevated import costs and reduced meat consumption are expected to curb pork imports through late 2025.

South Korea’s slaughter fell 3% YOY in August due to limited hog availability and slower growth rates from the unusually hot weather.

Prices climbed 19% YOY in August, supported by demand and low inventories. Despite strong prices, herd expansion remains limited due to ongoing concerns with high production costs and disease.

Vietnam remains heavily affected by disease outbreaks leading to the culling of 648,000 pigs. Although vaccine development and containment measures are progressing, recovery is expected to be gradual.

Panic selling pushed pork prices down 15% YOY in September meanwhile imports have nearly doubled in value over the first eight months of 2025, led by shipments from Russia and Brazil.

Herd liquidation is supporting production volumes in 2025; however, production is expected to decline in 2026 as breeding inventories become tighter, giving further support to imports.

In the Philippines it is a similar story, as disease continues to pressure supply, with herd numbers down 5.6% YOY at the end of Q2 2025.

Imports increased 27% YOY in the first eight months of 2025, with Brazil now accounting for 40% of total imports.

While prices have eased slightly from mid-year peaks, they are expected to remain elevated into early 2026 since domestic supply remains tight.

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