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- EU medium term outlook to 2035: Slowing milk solids growth and shift to high-value dairy products.
EU medium term outlook to 2035: Slowing milk solids growth and shift to high-value dairy products.
Thursday, 9 January 2025
The EU has released its latest medium-term agricultural outlook, providing projections for key sectors, including dairy up to 2035.
- Milk solids availability: EU raw milk production is expected to experience slower growth in milk solids content compared to the past decade attributed to limitations in further improvements in feed strategies and herd structure, particularly in countries like Austria, Denmark, and Ireland, which drove previous gains. Milk fat and non-fat solids output are projected to decline by 1% over the period 2024-2035.
- Processing adjustments: The dairy processing sector is expected to shift towards higher-value products like cheese and whey, which will absorb a larger share of the milk pool (46% by 2035, up from 44% in 2022-2024). In contrast, butter production is projected to grow modestly (+0.3% annually), while skimmed milk powder (SMP) production is expected to remain stable. Whole milk powder (WMP) output is set to decline by 0.9% annually due to reduced global competitiveness.
- Domestic consumption: Strong domestic demand will remain a stable outlet for EU dairy products. Per capita consumption of dairy products is projected to increase by 2kg per year, with a growing preference for products with lower fat and sugar content, as well as those addressing dietary needs like lactose-free options.
- Cheese market growth: Cheese production and exports are expected to increase steadily (+0.8% annually) due to robust domestic and international demand. Despite recent inflationary pressures, cheese consumption in the EU is projected to rise by 0.4% annually, supported by strong demand for milk fat.
- Exports: Although the total volume of dairy exports is projected to decline slightly (-0.2% annually), export value is expected to grow by 0.4% annually due to a shift towards higher-value products and relatively high global dairy prices.
- Price outlook: EU raw milk prices are projected to remain above pre-2022 levels but below the historical highs of 2021-2022. Cheese prices are expected to continue increasing steadily, while butter prices will remain high, with a moderate upward trend until 2035. SMP prices are expected to rise slightly, whereas whey prices are likely to remain flat
The medium term outlook covers all agricultural sectors. Read our summary of the forecasts for beef, lamb and pork.
The full EU medium term outlook is available here.
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