Lamb outlook: Production update

Key points:

• Total sheep meat production for 2024 is expected to total 263,000 tonnes, back nearly 8% on the year.
• The lamb crop for the 2024/25 season is estimated to be 15.5 million head, down 4% on the previous season, driven by a smaller breeding flock.
• We expect a further contraction in the UK female breeding flock in December 2024.
• The forecast lamb crop for 2025/26 is forecast to reduce further on the back of a reduced ewe flock.

What has changed since the last forecast

• Total sheep meat production has been lower than forecast, following kill data for the first three quarters of 2024 showing significant declines.
• The estimated 2024/25 lamb crop has been reduced. This follows devolved livestock population data that suggests a reduction in the rearing rate from our original estimate.
• Lamb losses are estimated to have increased for 2024, reflecting disease and weather challenges.

2024

Breeding flock

The breeding flock consists of ewes intended for further breeding and slaughter, and ewes intended for first time breeding (ewe lambs). According to Defra figures, the UK female breeding flock reduced notably in December 2023, down 4.3% from the year before to 13.8 million head.

Another significant contraction is forecast for the national breeding flock in December 2024, following release of livestock surveys that showed sharp annual reductions in Scottish and English numbers. Driving this trend, we saw sharp reductions in the number of ewes for first time breeding, down 11% in England at 1 June 2024.

Lamb crop

The lamb crop for the 2024/25 season (March – March) is forecast at 15.5 million head, a decline of 3.7% on the previous year. This is driven by the combination of a smaller breeding flock in 2023, as demonstrated in the December census data, and a lower estimated rearing rate in 2024, attributed to challenges with weather and disease.

Clean sheep slaughter

Clean sheep slaughter for the first three quarters of 2024 (Jan-Sep) totalled 8.2 million head, a decline of 7.9% on 2023. For the full year of 2024, UK clean sheep slaughter is forecast to total 11.3 million head, down 8% on the year before. In line with seasonal trends, we expect to see the highest level of clean sheep slaughter in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Carcase weights

Carcase weights were up very slightly year-on-year in the first half of 2024, however they eased back in Q3. The relative stability in weights indicates that year-on-year, decreases in production are mostly driven by reduced throughputs. Looking ahead, carcase weights in Q4 are forecast to remain stable on last year.

Adult sheep slaughter

We forecast that for the full year of 2024, UK adult sheep slaughter will total 1.45 million head, back 12.1% on the previous year. Slaughter has been back significantly year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2024, driven in part by a smaller breeding flock.

Production

As a result of the above forecasts, total UK sheep meat production for the full year of 2024 is forecast to total 263,000 tonnes, back 7.9% on the year. Throughout the year so far, we have seen production back significantly, driven by lower throughputs. We expect a lift in production in Q4 of 2024, in line with seasonal trends and assuming continued strength in farmgate prices.  

Looking forward to 2025

Based on current data, we forecast a slightly higher carryover of lambs into 2025 versus last year, contributing to clean sheep slaughter in the first quarter of 2025.

We expect a smaller lamb crop in 2025, compared to the 2024 season, with the current forecast sitting at 15.2 million head. This is primarily driven by a reduced female breeding flock but assumes slight improvement in the rearing rate compared to low rates seen during the previous two years. However, this will depend on conditions at tupping, and weather and disease pressures at lambing.

This forecast will be reviewed in the new year, following further data releases. This will include our full 2025 lamb forecasts for production, trade, retail and consumer trends. 

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