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Milk Forecasting Forum discuss the challenges facing farmers in the 2025/26 season
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
Summary
The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 18 March to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focussed around:
- Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focussed on decline in herd size likely to affect milk output. Labour issue, higher cost of borrowing and volatility in feed cost remain cause of concern.
- What will be the impact of decline in youngstock numbers on long-term rate of decline in milking herd, particularly in light of the difficulties sourcing replacement heifers from the continent due to BTV.
- How to realise genetic gains made in herd management.
- To what extent the Milk to Feed Price Ratio (currently in the expansion zone) will incentivise production during the season.
- How the current favourable weather is going to support early turnout and milk production, forage quality and availability this season.
- How the lack of availability of replacement heifers will affect herd numbers in future
- Impact of BTV on dairy herd and milk production and likely uptake of vaccinations
- Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows.
- The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislationon herd size and structure and inflation on input costs.
We've released a pack of the information discussed at the forum, which you can download from the Milk Forecasting Forum webpage.
We will be updating our production forecast later this month (March 2025). In the meantime, our December forecast update can be found on the website.
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