UK production resilient despite lower slaughter: Beef market update

Key points

• UK beef production matched last year's levels in the first half of 2026, with stronger prime cattle weights compensating for fewer cattle processed.
• Our 2026 prime cattle slaughter forecast remains largely unchanged at 1.99 million head, with numbers expected to be similar to 2025 for the rest of the year.
• A further near 1% decline is forecast in prime kill in 2027.
• Indications of a slowing in national suckler herd decline and increased heifer retention are factors to monitor going forward.

First-half production levels steady

For the first half of 2026 (H1), the UK produced 444,000 tonnes of beef and veal, according to Defra. This was almost identical to the amount produced during the same period a year ago.

Despite this headline stability, the detail reveals more. Between January and June (inclusive), 1.31 million cattle and calves were slaughtered, 34,000 fewer (-2.5%) than the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, prime cattle weights were 10kg heavier on average than in H1 2025 at 355kg, supporting overall meat production. Weights have likely been supported by a combination of factors; pressure to recoup margin against relatively more expensive store cattle, incentive from strength in finished cattle prices and more favourable feed costs, to name a few.

Figure 1: UK cattle slaughter and beef production in the year-to-date (January – June)

The chart in Figure 1 shows the number of cattle and calves slaughtered and beef produced in the UK through January – June (inclusive) from 2022 – 2026. Slaughter numbers are shown in stacked bars on the left axis. Beef production is shown in the green line on the right axis.

Female slaughter rate lower

Slaughter of both prime cattle (-2.1%) and cows (-3.2%) fell compared to a year ago. The steepest decline among prime cattle was in heifer numbers (-2.9%), with kills continuing to fall back from the high recorded in H1 2024. Steer slaughter also fell back (-2.3%).
Meanwhile, following several years of decline, young bull slaughter rose by 3.7% year-on-year.

The proportion of adult cattle slaughter made up by heifers and cows (sometimes referred to as the “female slaughter rate”) has fallen slightly so far in 2026 to 53.7%, having increased for several years. Could this be an early indication that retention has increased?

Indeed, cow slaughter for H1 2026 was below our forecasts from February. Cattle population data and cow slaughter trends also suggest that suckler herd contraction may be beginning to slow.

So where does this leave cattle supply going forward?

Short-term supply forecast largely unchanged

Factoring in the latest data, our UK prime cattle slaughter forecast for 2026 remains largely unchanged at 1.99 million head (-1% year-on-year). UK prime cattle supply for the rest of 2026 is expected to be broadly steady on last year’s levels, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Actual and forecast UK prime cattle slaughter 2023 – 2027

Source: Defra, AHDB forecasts in hashed bars

The bar chart in Figure 2 shows UK prime cattle slaughter numbers by quarter for 2023 – 2027. Solid bars contain actual figures from Defra, hashed bars contain AHDB forecast figures. Data for 2023 is shown in light blue, 2024 in dark blue, 2025 in green, 2026 in brown and 2027 in grey.

Our 2026 cow slaughter forecast has been revised down to 582,000 head, -2.2% year-on-year.

Taking into account prime carcase weights, our 2026 beef production forecast has been revised up to 898,000 tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year.

Gentle contraction continues for next year’s cattle supply

Looking ahead to 2027, our current prime cattle slaughter forecast is based upon a similar trajectory of decline. A further 1% fall in UK prime cattle kill is expected, to 1.98 million head.

This is not as steep a decline as previously forecast, partly because of a slight increase in youngstock numbers compared to forecast.

However, this would put prime slaughter in 2027 closer to levels seen a decade ago, before the expansion of sexed and beef semen usage in the dairy herd.

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