Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Economic overview

MENA is a diverse geographical region of around 19 countries and a wide gross domestic product (GDP) range. Growth of the middle class population in MENA is likely to create ample demand for products such as meat and dairy.

The countries which comprise MENA are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Map of MENA

Note: MENA includes Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

MENA region economies are forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2025 and by 3.7% in 2026, with the outlook by the end of this decade remaining fairly stable according to the International  Monetary Fund (IMF). Overall, the region has not been largely affected by increases to US tariffs and trade disruption.  

Recent growth trends indicate a divergence between oil-exporting and oil-importing economies in the MENA region (Table 1).

In 2024, the main oil exporters – such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – successfully navigated a complex and uncertain economic landscape, aided by ongoing diversification efforts, despite reduced oil activity because of extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts.

By contrast, the ongoing conflicts in the MENA region and their spillover effects have weighed on growth in several oil-importing economies, despite higher demand from falling food and energy prices and thriving tourism.

Looking ahead, economic activity in the MENA region is projected to strengthen, helped by the faster-than-expected end to OPEC+ production cuts, which have led to a higher output of oil in 2025.

Libya’s economic activity was expected to increase considerably in 2025 due to a variety of factors, including a strong recovery in oil production, improved economic conditions and higher public sector spending.

Table 1. Real GDP growth in selected MENA countries* (year-on-year % change)

*For which data is available. (f) = forecast change

Source: IMF

Risks remain, however, due to greater uncertainty and lower global demand. The region is also vulnerable to escalation of geopolitical tensions, as well as climate-related shocks.

Latest estimates from the United Nations point towards a population increase of 53% (280 million people) in MENA by 2075 under its medium growth projection. Egypt is expected to have the highest population increase, with an additional 72 million inhabitants over the next 50 years.

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