High-priority risks and opportunities to UK agriculture from climate change

Productivity and farm assets, such as buildings and land, were most at risk to the effects of climate change, mainly because of increased extremes in weather, our Climate Change Adaptation report found.

These risks are critical now and will continue to be so. They are all key to food production and highly threatened by climate change, but also interdependent with the medium-priority risks to things such as carbon stores, pests and pathogens, and on-farm infrastructure.

The impact of all these risks will remain major with a two-degree rise in temperature through to 2100. They become severe if the temperature rises by four degrees by 2100.

Find out more about what these risks and opportunities mean and some of the things farmers and growers can do to mitigate them. These are for an overall UK context and will depend on the business and local factors. 

Impacts

• Soils above field capacity leading to reduced land availability for spreading manure or slurry
• Flooding leading to inaccessible fields. Extreme and rapid flooding may lead to loss of livestock and crops
• Run-off risks, soil sediment and phosphorus and nitrate leaching
• Changing precipitation patterns may also increase groundwater pollution issues

Impacts

• High rainfall and flooding increase the need to house livestock
• Adverse impacts on forage growth, quality and availability affects livestock grazing
• Poorer crop establishment in spring and autumn
• Decrease in water availability for on-farm use due to drought

Opportunities

• Growing different legumes for proteins
• Lower winter feed and energy costs from livestock housing caused by warmer winters
• New crops such as soya, sunflower and grain maize could become viable in the UK
• Warmer, drier summers could mean more timely crop harvests, leading to better-quality crops and reduced drying costs

Impacts

• Erosion and compaction/poaching risks from livestock and machinery due to heavier rainfall
• Soil aridity affecting water availability for grassland and crops
• Reduced grazing productivity and quality
• Nitrogen and phosphate run-off into nearby waters
• Increased N₂O emissions, grass and crop damage, reduced access to farmland