Low-priority risks and opportunities to UK agriculture from climate change

Lower food availability in the UK from overseas climate change, changes to the landscape and rising sea-levels were some of the low-priority risks identified in our Climate Change Adaptation report.

However, there were some opportunities identified, especially in farmers using new or alternative species.

These all have a minor or moderate impact now, but they will become moderate by 2100 with a two-degree rise in temperature. They become major if the temperature rises by four degrees by 2100.

Find out more about what these risks and opportunities could mean and some of the things farmers and growers can do to mitigate them. These are for an overall UK context and will depend on the business and local factors.

Opportunities

• More resilient grass and forage species, including the use of mixed swards
• New crop species could become viable in the UK, e.g. sunflowers, soya, chickpeas, lentils, grain maize, durum wheat
• Potential for different legumes for home-grown proteins
• Hill/upland farming changing to hardier breeds

Impacts

• If international food systems become more exposed to climate-related hazards, supply shocks may cause food price spikes and market volatility, which will affect food accessibility
• New and emerging markets may expose the UK to increased risks as potential new partners are exposed to higher climate-related risks or lower ability to govern them
• Poor soya bean harvests or other supply disruptions could cause price fluctuations and present a risk to imported soy-based animal feed, an important input into UK meat production

Impacts

• Changes to the local landscape, e.g. the impact of urban protection, causing hydrological changes such as lower river and stream flows
• Changes to river flow, with an increased need for dredging and desilting
• Upland and lowland peatland drying out, causing damage and exacerbating flooding and/or impacting water catchment flow
• Loss of soil structure and erosion risk from drought
• Increasing chance of wildfires

Opportunities

• Shifting areas of agricultural production due to change in climate and suitability of the landscape
• Hill farming may be the most vulnerable, as vegetation may disappear. Some environments may be too dry and rocky for livestock
• Agroforestry of arable and grassland

Impacts

• If sea levels rise relative to fresh groundwater levels, saltwater can enter the aquifer and increase salinity in agricultural land. This can also affect the quality of water for abstraction
• Drought may exacerbate saltwater intrusion in estuaries, resulting in more severe water shortages in these areas
• Sodium will affect soil structure and quality
• Saltwater intrusion can alter soil carbon storage in low-lying coastal fields