Medium-priority risks and opportunities to UK agriculture from climate change

Reduced carbon stocks, an increase in pests and disease, and threats to food safety and security were some of the medium-priority risks identified in our Climate Change Adaptation report.

These have a moderate impact or likelihood now, or increasing over time, and are independent on the high-priority risks.

The impact of all these risks will remain moderate but become major by 2100 with a two-degree rise in temperature. Several become severe if the temperature rises by four degrees by 2100.

Find out more about what these risks and opportunities could mean and some of the things farmers and growers can do to mitigate them. These are for an overall UK context and will depend on the business and local factors. 

Impacts

• Loss of soil organic carbon due to higher temperature reduces the ability to build carbon stocks
• Changes in climate variables may affect soil conservation/regenerative practices
• Restored peatlands for carbon sequestration cannot be used for grazing
• Higher temperatures (i) decrease the potential of crops to store carbon and (ii) increase water stress and disturbance
• Loss of woody biomass carbon stores from wildfires

Opportunities

• Increasing carbon in wetter soils and upland peaty soils, where grazed by sheep and cattle
• Agroforestry, e.g. shelter belts, to provide co-benefits with carbon sequestration

Impacts

• Evolving pesticide resistance in combination with climate change effects may worsen the problem, e.g. longer activity period and increased overwintering survival due to the warmer winters
• Warmer, wetter winters could increase risks from parasites that reduce productivity and increase livestock disease. High-intensity parasite outbreaks are also a major concern
• In housed livestock systems, there may be temperature events beyond the capacity of the ventilation system, resulting in increased energy and water use and risk of disease
• Warmer and wetter conditions over winter may lead to increased prevalence of indigenous pest and disease, while warmer summers may allow new diseases to become established

Impacts

• Damage to farm buildings and physical infrastructure 
• Increased use of generators due to power failure/outage affected by fuel choices or fuel availability
• Higher humidity could see an increase in mould growth, rot and insect infestation
• Animals may require longer housing periods, causing potential increases in ammonia, odour and dust emissions
• Increased insurance premiums or lack of insurance

Opportunities

• Altered global patterns of food production could open new markets for imports and/or exports
• If longer-term climate change results in a comparative advantage for UK agriculture relative to other food-producing regions, there will be opportunities for increased exports. But this comes with a risk of unsustainable intensification of production
• Regions of the UK less vulnerable to extreme heat and drought may focus more on arable development, while crop production nationally may move towards species with more stable yields to avoid over-reliance on imports

Impacts

• Trade is funnelled through a small number of globally important pinch points, e.g. Suez Canal, which if affected has a crucial impact on global supply
• Many routes are through areas of broad geopolitical instability which may be destabilised by the effects of climate change
• A number of global conglomerates controlling shipping, food production and agriculture is a risk for global food supply
• The UK relies on imports of key inputs including phosphate, nitrogen fertiliser and soy meal

Impacts

• Weather variability will increase UK costs of production, impacting competitiveness
• Poor weather could reduce production and/or create a surplus of lower-quality crops and animals
• Shortages in domestic food production will drive food availability and affordability
• Increased risk of ergot and mycotoxins from wet harvests, affecting animal and human health
• Food security is linked to energy security, so changes in energy supply, mix and price are likely to impact food supply