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2022 Australian cattle forecast
Thursday, 3 February 2022
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) have released their cattle industry forecast for 2022. Production is expected to increase but pressures remain for both domestic and export markets, due to the impact of COVID-19 and increases in price inflation.
Production
- rebuilding the national herd after a period of severely unfavourable weather conditions
- forecasts the national herd to have increased by 4% to 27.2 million head by the end of 2022 and to have reached 28.2 million head by 2024
- in 2022 production is expected to reach 2.08 million tonnes, a 12% increase on 2021 levels
- production is forecast to reach 2.44 million tonnes by 2024, a 32% improvement on 2021, a new record for the country
Domestic market
- consumption of beef has fallen by 11% in part due to the disrupted recovery of the food service sector in response to new COVID-19 variants
- retail price increased by 11% in part due to high cattle prices
- Australian inflation rates are currently high
Export market
- globally freight and logistic markets are challenged
- China’s imports of beef are expected to increase by 10% in 2022 to roughly 200,000 tonnes, helping to support global prices
- China is still on a COVID-Zero policy and are encouraging citizens to avoid buying products from overseas which, if sustained, will likely reduce consumption of beef
- US provides opportunity for growth in the premium market as demand rises for grass finished beef
- significant logistical challenges and the continued rise in transport costs will be a large factor in the amount of beef that can be exported to the US in 2022
- improved market access to the UK could offer opportunities once the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is ratified
- difficulties within the British food service sector and elevated freight rates may however limit these opportunities
- Indonesia and South Korean markets have remained very resilient to the current market pressures and COVID-19 related challenges, with both nations expecting to see continued growth in imports of beef
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