November 2025 dairy market review

Milk production

Domestic

GB milk deliveries in November totalled an estimated 1,071 million litres, up 5.2% compared to the same period in 2024.

Daily deliveries averaged at 35.70 million litres. Production for this year’s milk season so far (April-October) sits at 8,731 million litres, up 5.5% compared to the same period in 2024.

We are now also annualising against a period of growth in November 2024. GB milk production is actually 9.8%, or 95 million litres above November 2023.

Milk supplies have been running well ahead of the five-year average since Autumn 2024. For the milk year to date, GB milk supplies are 5.9% or 453 million litres up on last year.

Our December reforecast predicted GB milk production for the 2025/26 season was forecast to record a new high of 13.05bn litres, 4.9% more than the previous milk year, before beginning to contract in 2026/27.

After the flush, we should see market signals to begin to be registered in the production numbers and should start to see some year-on-year decline, but it is important to note we will still be annualising versus a very high base and there is likely to still be too much milk for demand well into 2026.

The milk to feed price ratio (MFPR) continues to be well in the expansion zone incentivising farmers to push production. However, milk price announcements for November and December marked a sharp change in direction, with many processors dropping milk prices, in many instances now approaching double digit declines.

This has been variable by contract, however, and those on organic or retail-aligned contracts have not yet seen much decline.

Milk price hits will only just be beginning to be seen in milk cheques and declines in headline prices will be partially offset by strong milk composition with fat and protein in the milk still running at very high levels.

Organic milk supplies

GB Organic milk deliveries have soared ahead alongside the strong growth in total GB milk delivery volumes. Volumes have shown year-on-year growth since March 2025, with the latest GB organic delivery estimates (up to 8 November) showing a 11.6% year-on-year increase in the milk year to date. This is equivalent to an additional 24.6 million litres of organic milk.

However, in comparison to the previous 2023/24 milk year, volumes are up by a more modest +1.7%, showing that these are mostly recovery gains. Volumes remain significantly below (-7.8%) the four-yearyear average, which was held up by the years prior.

Again, this is reflective of the industry pushing recovery back to normal levels, rather than oversupply.

The widening gap between conventional and organic milk prices suggests stronger demand for organic milk and the need to maintain organic milk supplies.

Global

The latest global production data estimate shows global milk flows now increasing sharply in most regions.

Global milk deliveries averaged 855.2 million litres per day in September, an increase of 34.1 million litres per day (+4.1%) across the selected regions, compared to the same period last year. All regions recorded year-on-year volume increases except for Australia.

More recent data for the EU and the USA, which together represent about four-fifths of global milk production within the top 6 exporting regions, showed strong growth for both regions in recent months, which has continued.

The EU has continued strong growth of 5% in October, bouncing back from production and fertility issues causes by the bluetongue virus.

The USA are seeing strong production growth driven by herd expansion to supply new cheese processing capacity and growing export markets, up by 3.7% in October according to Ornua.

As we have previously reported, fundamentally milk supplies are running too far ahead of what global demand can absorb. Demand is notably flat currently, with export demand steady.

Dairy product inventories are growing globally, which means that even after production comes under control, commodity prices will take some time to recover.

We also published a review of the Indian dairy market in November.

Dairy trade

Total UK dairy export volume for Q3 2025 increased 5.5% year-on-year, totalling 294,000 t, driven by powders, whey and whey products, cheese and butter. Total UK dairy export value stood at £529m, up 13.7% year-on-year.

Export volumes of milk, cream and yogurt shrunk in volume but grew in value while exports of cheese are at the highest level for Q3 seen in the last six years.

Imports declined slightly during the period due to lower imports from Ireland and New Zealand year-on-year.

Wholesale markets: November

There was no let-up in declining market sentiment as the month of November progressed and the price slump seen in early Autumn deepened further.

Milk supplies have continued to run at high levels and with a high build-up of stocks, processing and storage capacity alike is coming under pressure. Demand isn’t bad, but isn’t sufficient to deal with these volumes.

Butter prices continued to see the most pressure. The average butter price lost a further £390/t in November, bringing the total value lost since the losses began, back in June, to £1870/t.

The average for the period sat at £4290, but prices declined throughout the month. By the end of the period, some were even accepting offers under the 4K mark. Cream and butter are locked in a negative feedback loop with price weakness on one driving further declines on the other.

Milk continues to flow unabated to levels the industry is struggling to cope with. Various breakdowns during the period added to the pressure. European butter is now looking competitive against New Zealand, which is one glimmer of light (although still at a heavy premium to the USA).

Bulk cream prices followed suit, with average pricing sitting £234/t lower in November compared to October. Cream is now worth almost half of what it was in September 2024.

Top-end pricing at the start of the period was around £1.85/kg but slid through the period to as low as £1.55. The average for the month was £1.75/kg.

Mild cheddar continued to decline, although not quite as heavily as butter. The average price fell £150/t to £2,960, breaking the psychologically significant £3,000/t price – we haven’t been there since July 2021.

Reports indicate that a lot of cheese has been produced and that some of that has been produced for the whey, prices of which seem to be the only remaining buoyant dairy commodity.

Irish cheddar is also abundantly available to clear stocks for years end adding pressure to an already pressured market.

SMP prices saw the least movement but did ease £20/t month on month, falling throughout the month. As with the other commodities, there is too much milk and only so much space to process it.

This takes the value of milk as indicated by AMPE to 33.6ppl, a fall of 6% in a month and MCVE to 33.0ppl, falling 4.7%. This means the Milk Market Value has lost around one-third of its value since the summer.  

The latest GDT (Global Dairy Trade) auction results made for grim reading. The auction, which is New Zealand-based but a barometer of global dairy sentiment, fell by an average of 4.3% since the previous auction, the biggest single fall since early September and concludes a run of eight consecutive declines. Butter fell by 12.4%.

Farmgate milk prices

The latest published farmgate price was for October, with a UK average milk price of 46.5ppl, up 1.1% on the previous month. As yet, the milk price falls have not been seen in the Defra data and should begin from the end of November milk cheques.  

The latest announced farmgate prices were largely very negative for December. Aligned liquid contracts saw stability with Muller Co-op Dairy Group and Tesco holding on to their price.

M&S have held on to their price for the last three months. Sainsbury’s is the only one to make a positive announcement of 0.04ppl in December.

On non-aligned liquid contracts, all the buyers on the AHDB League table announced price cuts for the month of December. Pembrokeshire Creamery reduced their price by 3.94ppl, which is the third consecutive month of price decline.

Grahams and BV Dairy cut their prices by 3.00ppl and 3.58ppl, respectively. Crediton, Freshways and Payne’s Dairies reduced their price by 2.00ppl, each followed by Muller Direct at a reduction of 1.50ppl. Saputo made a reduction of 1.00ppl in December.

The announced changes to cheese contracts were also negative. First Milk Manufacturing announced the largest decline for the month of 6.00ppl, followed by Leprino at a reduction of 5.00ppl.

Barbers Cheese reduced their price by 3.75ppl, which is the second consecutive month of decline after holding steady for seven months. Belton cheese and South Caernarfon Creameries made a reduction of 3.50ppl each.

Lactalis and Wyke farms also followed suit, reducing their price by 3.11ppl each. Wensleydale reduced its price by 3.00ppl. Parkham Farms was the only one to make no change in price after announcing the biggest ever single month decline of 8ppl in the month of November.

Announcements on manufacturing contracts followed suit, with UK Arla Manufacturing dropping their price by 3.50ppl. This is the fourth consecutive month of price declines. Pattemores Dairy Ingredients and Meadow reduced their price by 3.00ppl each for December.

Retail demand

During the 52 weeks ending 1 November 2025, volumes of cow dairy declined by 1.1% year-on-year (NIQ Homescan POD, Total GB). Spending on cow’s dairy increased by 6.5%, driven by a +7.7% increase in average prices paid.

Cows’ milk volumes continued to decrease (-2.6%) year-on-year (NIQ, 52 w/e 1 November 2025), while spend saw an increase of 1.8% due to a 4.5% increase in average prices paid. Overall volume declines were driven by a reduction in the frequency of purchase and volumes purchased per trip.

Volume declines were seen for semi-skimmed and skimmed milk, while whole milk (+2.3%) and other cows’ milk (+16.3%) (including Channel Island and 1% fat milk) continue to see volume increases this period.

Other animal-sourced milk also saw volume growth, while plant-based milks saw a decline.

Cows’ cheese remained in volume growth, up 1.7% year-on-year, and spending during the period increased by 5.7% (NIQ, 52 w/e 1 November 2025). Cheddar, which represents a majority (45.2%) of cows’ cheese volumes, saw a slight increase in volumes purchased (+0.3%).

Increases in volumes were also seen for snacking (+2.8%), specialty and continental (+3.5%), and other cows’ cheese (+7.3%), offsetting the declines seen in British Regionals, processed, and Stilton and British Blue.

Cows’ butter saw a 2.2% decrease in volumes this period, while spend grew by 9.8% year-on-year, due to a 12.3% increase in average prices paid (NIQ, 52 w/e 1 November 2025).

Block butter continues to see volume growth, up 5.5%, driven by increases in the number of shoppers and the frequency of purchase.

However, this was not enough to offset declines in cow butter spread volumes (-5.5%).

Cows’ yogurt, yogurt drinks and fromage frais volumes continue to see growth (+6.3%), with spend increasing 11.4% year-on-year (NIQ, 52 w/e 1 November 2025).

Most products in this category saw growth in volumes purchased this period, offsetting the declines from fromage frais (-8.3%), split pot (-0.1%) and standard flavoured (-5.6%).

Cows’ fat-free yogurt remains the product that saw the greatest actual growth (+17.5 million kilos), while cows’ standard plain yogurt saw the fastest volume growth of 25.5% year-on-year.

Cows’ cream volumes saw a +2.3% increase year-on-year, driven by increases in shopper numbers and volumes purchased per shopper, despite a 9.2% increase in average prices paid (NIQ, 52 w/e 1 November 2025).

Growth in aerosol (+1.9%), crème fraiche (+0.1%), double (+3.9%) and sour cream (+3.4%), volumes drove this performance. Single cream, on the other hand, saw volumes remain relatively flat compared to the same period last year (+785 litres).

See the full data and these insights on our GB household dairy purchases retail dashboard.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.