Shortness in supply and strong demand continues to strengthen global prices: Beef market update

Key points

• Australian beef production has reached record highs in 2025, with significant growth in exports to the major importers of the US and China. Production is forecast to decline in 2026 and 2027 as the herd stabilises but will remain at historically high levels
• New Zealand supplies are tight, supporting both farmgate and export prices. Latest population figures indicate some herd rebuilding to bolster supplies in coming years
• China’s beef imports remain firm as falling domestic production sustains demand for competitively priced imports from Brazil and Australia.
• Brazilian beef exports have continued to lift, up 16.6% year-on-year (Jan–Sep), though slower slaughter growth signals the start of a tightening cycle across South America
• Overall, reducing supply and sustained demand for beef globally would suggest underlying support for cattle prices in the round. However, short-term uncertainty remains around potential trade flow disruption

Australia

Beef production in Australia is set to hit a record high of 2.79 million tonnes (Mt) for the full year of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Meat & Livestock Australia. This is underpinned by a slaughter of 9.02 million cattle, a near 9% increase compared to last year. Carcase weights remain historically high as good feed availability allows producers to finish cattle at heavier weights.

Australia has been well positioned to capitalise on strong beef demand globally, being one of the few major producers with higher output this year. In the year-to-date (Jan–Aug), Australia exported 1.2 Mt of beef (fresh, frozen, offal and processed), up 17% on the same period in 2024.

Australian total beef exports by destination YTD (Jan–Aug)

Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) via Trade Data Monitor LLC

Strong export volumes have underpinned Australian cattle prices, which have shown consistent growth over the last few months. The Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator has grown from £3.34/kg equivalent at the end of June to £4.28/kg equivalent in the first week of October.

Looking forward, the Australian herd is set to remain stable into 2026, with slaughter decreasing slightly as producers move towards greater stock retention. Heavier carcase weights are expected to partially offset fewer cattle coming forward, with overall Australian beef production currently forecasted to fall by nearly 3% in 2026 to 2.72 million tonnes.

New Zealand

New Zealand has experienced strong growth in cattle prices through 2025, with limited cattle availability against steady demand. For the 2024/25 season (September–September) Beef & Lamb New Zealand (B&LNZ) report beef production at 642,000 t, down 3% on the previous season.

Lower production has somewhat limited New Zealand’s exports, with volumes down 5% year-on-year to 388,000 t for Jan–Sep (fresh, frozen, processed and offal). Most of this decline came from reductions to China and Japan, with increased shipments to Canada likely a result of reduced US production creating an opportunity in that market.

Growth in high value beef trade to the EU and UK has supported an increase in average beef export value for New Zealand, despite being much smaller volumes than other markets. The UK imported 7,000 t of New Zealand beef (Jan–Aug), up 152% from the same period a year ago, equating to 3.5% of total UK beef import volumes.

Forecasting from B&LNZ suggests that production for the 2025/26 season will total 633,000 t (-1.4% YoY). Strong farmgate prices and favourable margins are likely to support production in the short term, with reports that some farmers are shifting focus away from sheep into cattle.

Looking further ahead, the B&LNZ Stock Number Survey showed a 4.4% annual increase in beef cattle numbers at 30 June 2025. Particular growth was noted in breeding cows mated (+2.8% YoY) suggesting some herd rebuilding, which should feed through to greater supply in the coming years.

China

Chinese national beef production is estimated at 7.8 Mt for 2025, broadly flat on 2024, as early-year slaughter offsets slower throughput later in the year.

Herd inventories fell to about 100 million head, down 4% year-on-year, with the breeding cow population sliding below 49 million head after extensive culling in 2024. Wholesale beef prices began to firm in early 2025, averaging around ¥90/kg, reflecting tighter supply.

Chinese beef imports reached 2.2 Mt for Jan-Sep 2025, up 1% year-on-year. Increases in product from Brazil and Australia slightly outweighed declines in shipments from Argentina and Uruguay.

China beef imports by country of origin year-to-date (Jan–Sep)

Source: China Customs Statistics via Trade Data Monitor LLC

China’s beef production is expected to decline in 2025 as cow numbers fall, keeping import demand firm. Import growth will continue, driven mainly by competitively priced South American beef, while trade measures and tariffs may add uncertainty to the outlook.

Brazil

Brazil remains the world’s largest beef exporter, accounting for around 28% of global trade. Slaughter in 2025 has begun to ease as producers enter the rebuilding phase of a cattle cycle following record throughput in 2023/24.

Despite slightly lower slaughter, exports are on course to increase year-on-year. Brazil’s beef production and exports hit record highs in 2024 and continued rising in early 2025, though growth has slowed as higher exports now rely more on weaker domestic consumption than on expanding production.

Exports reached 4.51 Mt for Jan–Sep 2025, up 16.6% year-on-year, with siginificant growth to China, Mexico and the US. 

New US tariffs on Brazilian products announced mid-2025 have resulted in reduced monthly exports to the US although the impact will likely become more significant by the end of 2025. It is likely that this has prompted diversification toward other Asian destinations.

Brazil beef exports by destination year-to-date (Jan–Sep)

Source: Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade, via Trade Data Monitor LLC

Conclusion

The chart below compares import and export volumes across key beef-producing and consuming nations, underscoring the global imbalance between supply and demand that continues to shape market dynamics heading into 2026.

Beef imports and exports of select countries year-to-date (Jan–Jul)

Source: Trade Data Monitor LLC

Global beef supply remains a major challenge for the industry, with the latest data and forecasts suggesting tightness in supply is likely to persist, at least in the medium term. This shortness of supply is supporting prices across the globe, with demand appearing to withstand price growth in major beef consuming nations such as the US.

However, consumer sensitivity to price remains a key watchpoint and potential risk for markets going forward. This balance of supply and demand continues to underpin prices across the globe, in Europe and in turn lend support to the UK market.

Looking ahead, it will be vital to monitor indicators of herd rebuilding, changes to trade flows and consumer sentiment, which will be essential determiners of the future of the market.

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