The AHDB Early Bird Survey: Winter cropping area set to rise again: Grain market daily

Market Commentary

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) rose again yesterday, gaining £2.90/t, to close at £231.15/t. This is the highest close of this contract to date.
• Paris milling wheat (May-22) also recorded an increase of €1.00/t, to €293.00/t. The Chicago wheat May-22 contract softened $0.46/t to $307.24/t, taking a breather after making new contract highs during the day’s trading.
• On Thursday, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2021/22 global wheat production by 4Mt, to 777Mt. This was partly driven by a downward revision to Iranian production, after the country suffered its worst drought in 50 years during the 2021 growing season.

The AHDB Early Bird Survey: Winter cropping area set to rise again

Today sees the release of the AHDB Early Bird Survey for Plantings and Planting Intentions. This provides the first look at the area planted in the UK for major cereals and oilseeds crops.

Wheat records a slight uptick in area on last year, up 1.3% to 1,811Kha returning to levels last seen in 2019. Despite the late harvest this year, the warmer than average September - October allowed farmers to get on the fields and drill the intended crops. In addition, current strong grain prices would be adding further incentive to plant. However, any significant area increases are reportedly being capped by rising input costs.

Winter barley also sees an area rise, putting this seasons estimated area at 415Kha. This is above both the five and ten year average (395Kha and 398Kha respectively).

With both winter wheat and winter barley areas increasing, the intended spring barley area is back once again on the year. At an estimated 688Kha, it is similar to the 2016 area, and significantly behind the five-year average (807Kha). However, this is intended, rather than actual area drilled. As the 2019/20 season demonstrated, inclement winter weather can drive a rethink in planting intentions.

Likely incentivised by current strong prices, oilseed rape has recorded an area rebound on the year. However, this increase is not as big as many may have expected. At a forecast 345Kha, it is still the second lowest OSR area since 1989 (last year being the lowest). This is most likely a reflection of both high input costs and the ongoing battle against Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle. In December, we will publish the regional splits for the Early Bird Survey. In these, we may well see regions of the country who were less affected by the flea beetle last season increase their OSR area, while more afflicted regions may be more cautious.

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