Market access watch – Global meat moves

Market access watch is a new blog series exploring how global trade shifts are reshaping access to key meat markets. It aims to highlight emerging dynamics and complement the important work already being done across the trade and policy community.

The first edition of Market access watch explores how external pressures, regulatory shifts and bilateral tensions are redefining market access for EU pork and beef exporters – while offering strategic openings (and setbacks) for the UK.

China’s imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties from 15.6% to 62.4% on EU pork has triggered:

• Mounting uncertainty for exporters
• Disrupted shipments
• Limited alternatives for offal trade

The ripple effects could reshape global meat flows. Here we explore the strategic recalibrations underway and the broader implications for supply chains and market access priorities across Europe and Asia.

This move follows a June 2024 investigation, widely seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

On 5 September 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued its preliminary ruling, with new duties applying to all consignments arriving at Chinese ports from 10 September onwards, including shipments already en route. This has created immediate disruption for exporters, with some consignments caught mid-transit and now facing unexpected cost burdens.

The provisional anti-dumping measures – implemented in the form of margin deposits – vary by company. Exporters that cooperated with the investigation face lower rates – typically between 15.6% and 32.7% – while non-cooperating exporters are subject to the full 62.4%. 

When EU-origin pork arrives at a Chinese port, the importer must pay a deposit to Chinese Customs, calculated by applying the assigned duty rate to the shipment’s customs value. For example, a €15,000 shipment at a 20% duty rate requires a €3,000 deposit. This upfront payment can impose considerable financial strain. While the financial burden technically falls on the importer, the implications for EU exporters could be significant.

Importers may now be re-evaluating sourcing strategies, particularly in light of the provisional duties and the uncertainty surrounding final outcomes. Some may consider shifting to non-EU suppliers to avoid upfront costs and administrative complexity.

As a result, EU exporters could face order cancellations, price renegotiations or delayed shipments. This disruption has the potential to create downward pressure on pork prices across the EU and neighbouring markets, as displaced volumes seek alternative outlets.

The scope of the investigation is broad, covering a wide range of pork products and by-products including fresh, frozen, offal, casings, and fat ends under specific HS codes. 

For major EU exporters such as Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands, the impact is direct and substantial. Spain alone accounts for nearly half of EU pork exports to China, making it particularly vulnerable to both immediate disruption and long-term market loss.

China absorbs over €2 billion in EU pork annually, primarily offal and fifth-quarter products (e.g., pig ears, feet, intestines) and other by-products with limited domestic demand in Europe but strong consumer preference in China. These components make up more than half of EU pork exports to China, and their displacement poses a unique challenge for exporters.

Unlike standard cuts, offal and fifth-quarter products have few viable alternative markets.

As Rabobank’s global animal protein strategist Eva Gocsik notes, options such as pet food or rendering offer-limited margins and diverting non-offal meat to compensate could intensify price competition in other export destinations.

Thierry Meyer, Vice President of French pork industry group Inaporc, echoed this concern, stating:

“We’ll continue exporting but at lower value.”

She warned that the duties – combined with a stronger euro could pressure exporters and reduce farmgate prices.

This lack of flexibility in fifth-quarter trade means EU producers may struggle to redirect volumes profitably, increasing the risk of margin erosion and production slowdown. The sector had only recently begun recovering from a multi-year downturn driven by high feed and energy costs, reduced Chinese demand and pandemic-era disruptions.

Falling input prices and modest export growth had started to restore margins, but this momentum is now threatened by the provisional anti-dumping duties imposed by China.

With China’s market now constrained, EU exporters are likely to intensify efforts in existing Asian markets such as Vietnam and the Philippines, where they already have formal access and established trade flows. These countries have shown steady demand for EU pork, particularly in processed and offal categories, and offer more predictable regulatory environments compared with China. However, it has been widely acknowledged that these markets are small in comparison to China, both in volume and value. While they offer important diversification opportunities, there is no true substitute for China’s scale and appetite for fifth-quarter products, making the current disruption especially difficult to absorb.

However, the current disruption is prompting a recalibration of volumes and positioning. EU producers are:

• Scaling up exports
• Diversifying product offerings
• Reinforcing importer relationships with importers in the wider region

This pivot also brings them into closer alignment and potential competition with UK exporters, who have carved out niches in premium pork segments and benefit from strong brand recognition in South East Asia.

Attention is turning to South East Asia, where markets such as the Philippines and Vietnam offer both stability and strategic growth potential.

In the Philippines:

• UK has a stable pork export relationship
• Considered a priority market access partner
• AHDB planning a trade mission in November

In Vietnam:

• UK pork gained formal access in May 2024
• Pork is the most consumed meat in Vietnam
• Domestic production struggles to meet demand

AHDB, working in partnership with the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), is organising a pork-focused trade seminar in late September, designed to connect UK exporters with Vietnamese importers, retailers and distributors. The event will spotlight UK standards, facilitate business matching and strengthen commercial relationships at a critical moment for market diversification.

For UK market access professionals, both Vietnam and the Philippines represent strategic footholds in a region that’s becoming increasingly central to global meat trade. These markets offer diversification, regulatory predictability and opportunities to build long-term consumer trust, especially as exporters across Europe recalibrate in response to China’s evolving trade posture.

China’s duties have accelerated a strategic realignment in Europe’s pork export landscape.

As EU producers are likely to scramble to redirect supply chains, markets such as Vietnam and the Philippines are stepping into the spotlight. For the UK, this moment offers a chance to reinforce its presence, defend its niche and anticipate the ripple effects of shifting global trade flows.

It also underscores the importance of maintaining a wide and resilient portfolio of market access. In times of disruption, having multiple open and active markets is not just a buffer: it’s a strategic necessity. This means continuing to protect and improve access to existing partners, while exploring new opportunities that can absorb displaced volumes and support long-term growth.

Much of this work happens quietly but decisively behind the scenes. AHDB, in partnership with industry stakeholders and the UK Government, plays a key role in advancing the UK’s market access agenda.

Our trade missions are promotional in nature – focused on meeting importers, showcasing UK standards and strengthening commercial ties. They complement the behind-the-scenes work that helps secure, protect and sustain access. Together, these efforts are essential to ensuring the UK remains agile, competitive and well-positioned in a rapidly evolving global meat economy.

In the next edition of Market access watch, we’ll explore the evolving EU–US pork trade, where new tariffs and quota arrangements may reshape transatlantic dynamics and create fresh challenges and opportunities for UK exporters.