Beef & lamb market update: Defra’s June survey shows UK beef and sheep populations at historic lows

Key points

• The total UK cattle population fell further year-on-year, sitting at 9.41 million head as of 1 June 2024.
• Meanwhile, the UK sheep flock totalled 31.02 million head at 1 June 2024, the lowest recorded population in history.
• Long term declines in the UK sheep and cattle populations have restricted supplies available in the market, likely contributing to the record high prices seen throughout 2024.

Cattle

Recently released figures from Defra show that UK cattle herd declined by 1.5% year-on-year to sit at a total of 9.41 million head at 1 June 2024. This continues the long-term trend of reducing cattle numbers, with almost all groups seeing annual declines.

The beef female breeding herd (aged 2 years or more) sat at 1.34 million head at 1 June 2024, down 4.5% (62,500 head) year-on-year. Reduction in the female breeding herd was entirely driven by a decline in the beef herd, whilst dairy cow numbers remained flat on the year. This is the greatest annual reduction seen in the beef breeding cows category in at least the last 20 years, and points to a continued contraction in suckler-bred cattle supply going forward.

UK breeding cow herd over time

Source: Defra

Delving into the splits by country, the steepest contraction was seen in the Welsh cattle herd, down 2.4% year-on-year. Conversely, the Northern Irish cattle herd was stable, although high cattle kill in the region over the autumn months may lead to a different picture for the upcoming December census.

Sheep

The UK flock stood at 31.02 million head as at 1 June 2024, down 2.5% on the same point of the previous year. Declines were seen in all major groups, with the most significant decline in the number of ewes registered for first time breeding.

Lambs under 1 year, at June 2024, totalled 15.23 million head, which was a historic low, down 1.5% on the year before. This is the best indication of the 2024 lamb crop, and the decline is reflective of a smaller breeding herd and lower lambing rates in 2024. This has likely been caused by challenges with disease and weather in the spring of this year.  

The total female breeding flock declined by 3.6% year on year, to stand at 14.88 million head. An 8.6% year-on-year decline in ewes for first time breeding supports reports that more ewe lambs were sold in the spring of 2024, during a period of very high market prices. The number of ewes for further breeding or slaughter was also down on the year previous.

This decline in the breeding flock could have implications on the 2025 lamb crop, with fewer breeding females likely leading to a smaller lamb crop next year. However, reports of strong demand at breeding sales through the autumn may indicate an appetite for flock rebuilding. Disease risk remains a key watchpoint as to the impact on lamb numbers. The next available view of the size of the national flock will be Defra’s 1 December census, released in the new year.

UK Sheep population at 1 June

Source: Defra

Implications for future supply

With both the UK cattle and sheep populations at record lows, we have already begun to see the effects of lower supplies on the market. Beef prices have reached record highs over the autumn and continue to climb as we move towards Christmas, with strong demand and expectations of tighter supplies in 2025 likely adding support to the price. On the lamb side, lower supplies have kept the price elevated throughout 2024, against a backdrop of good consumer demand.

The long-term contraction seen in the national cattle herd and sheep flock has significant implications for the industry now and in the future. We explore the long-term outlook for domestic supplies in our 2030 beef and lamb series, using a set of likely scenarios to model cattle and sheep numbers over the next five years.

You can subscribe to receive Beef and Lamb market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form.