Beef outlook: production update 2024/25

Cattle slaughter and beef production so far this year have been notably higher than our previous forecasts released in July. The revised forecast looks at the remainder of 2024 and ahead into 2025.

Key points

• UK beef production in 2024 is forecast to reach 933,000 tonnes, up 4% against 2023. This has been driven primarily by increased prime cattle slaughter.
• Prime cattle slaughter is forecast at 2.11 million head for 2024, up 4% against 2023. This has been predominantly driven by an uplift in heifer numbers.
• Year-to-date slaughter coupled with cattle inventory data suggests UK prime cattle could reduce by around 6% in 2025 to 1.99 million head (compared to current 2024 forecast).
• We will be updating our production forecasts again in the new year, alongside outlooks for consumption, imports and exports.

What has changed since the last forecast?

• Slaughter of prime cattle and cull cows so far in 2024 have both been ahead of our previous forecast published in July.
• This has led to upward revisions for the full-year slaughter forecasts for 2024.
• Considering production levels so far this year against cattle inventory data, our forecasts for 2025 show steeper reductions in cattle slaughter than previously anticipated.

2024 revised forecasts and the outlook for 2025

Prime cattle slaughter

Over the first 10 months of 2024, Defra figures show that 1.78 million prime cattle have been slaughtered in the UK. This was up 86,000 head, or 5% from the same period a year ago.

Most of this uplift was seen in the third quarter of the year, with October a particularly high month. While all cattle categories have seen uplift in slaughter, the majority of the annual increase has been driven by heifers.

Breaking the numbers down by country, the majority of the uplift in prime cattle numbers has been in England and Wales, although Northern Ireland has seen a comparatively steeper rate of increase. For the year-to-date, slaughter in England & Wales has risen by 5% (50,000 head) to 1.16 million head, while Northern Irish slaughter has risen by 12% (36,000 head) to reach 335,000 head. Scottish slaughter meanwhile has remained largely stable on the year at 289,000 head.

The year-to-date slaughter total leads us to revise our 2024 full-year UK prime cattle slaughter forecast upwards to 2.11 million head. This is 4% higher than in 2023.

For 2025, the kill level seen through this year factored against UK cattle inventories would point to a sharper reduction in supply. Our current forecast is for UK prime cattle slaughter to total 1.99 million head in 2025, a 6% reduction compared to the 2024 forecast, and 2% lower than 2023.

Cow slaughter

From January to October (inclusive), Defra figures show that 511,000 cows have been slaughtered, up 3% from the same period a year ago. BCMS data suggests that the uplift in GB has been predominantly from beef cows, while slaughter of dairy cows has been relatively stable year-on-year.

Defra figures show that while most of the uplift in cow slaughter has been in England & Wales, Northern Irish slaughter has seen a steeper rate of increase. Meanwhile, Scottish cow slaughter has reduced.

The current year-to-date slaughter leads us to revise our 2024 full-year UK cow slaughter forecast upwards to 624,000 head. This is 2% higher than in 2023.

For 2025, the kill level seen through this year factored against breeding herd inventories suggest a reduction in cow slaughter. Our current forecast is for UK cow slaughter to total 599,000 head in 2025, a 4% reduction against the 2024 forecast and 2% lower than 2023.

Beef production

Prime cattle carcase weights have been slightly heavier on average in 2024 against 2023, up 1.4kg to average 344kg.

The above slaughter forecasts combined with average weights positions the 2024 UK beef production forecast at 933,000 tonnes, up 4% against 2023.

The 2025 UK beef production forecast stands at 883,000 tonnes, down 5% from the 2024 forecast, and down 2% against 2023.

We will be updating our production forecasts again in the new year, alongside outlooks for consumption, imports and exports.

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