Search our website enhanced by Google.
Declines in GB milking herd expected to slow
Thursday, 12 December 2019
By Felicity Rusk
The GB milking herd has been in decline for several years. However, the latest population data from BCMS showed that the number of youngstock (under 2 years) has recorded the smallest year on year decline in three years.
Using historical data* on the proportion of cows that will be retained in the herd, we can estimate the size of the future national milking herd. Our expectation is that the milking herd (2+ years) will be around 1.72 million head by October 2020, a drop of 1.9% compared with the current level.
.png)
While the herd is still expected to decline, it is at a slower rate than previously. At 1 October 2019, the GB milking herd recorded a decline of 2.4%.
The number of female dairy cattle registered has remained relatively stable this year (Jan-Sep) compared to the same period in both 2017 and 2018. As such, we could see some stabilisation in the size of the milking herd in the future, as these females enter the milking herd, assuming retention rates remain at a similar level to recent years. However, changes in milk prices, cull cow prices and the prevalence of disease have the potential to influence retention rates, and therefore affect the forecast.
* The average retention rate at October for each age category over the past three years (2017-19) has been used to estimate the number of cows in each age category in October 2020.
Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.
While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.
All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.