EU beef and lamb: Structural declines give way to lower production

Key points:

• EU beef production fell by 4% for 2023, as beef production in Spain and France saw the largest volume declines (back 5% and 4%, respectively)
• EU sheep production fell 6% for 2023, as Spain remains the largest producer, despite an 11% decline from 2022
• EU prices continue to be supported by lower supplies available

Beef

Total EU beef production has been in general decline, highlighted by a 265,000-tonne (4%) decrease in production volumes from 2022 to 2023. Germany, as the second largest beef producer, saw slight increases in production across the year, up to 993,000 tonnes. The Netherlands also saw increases on the year to a total of 436,000 tonnes. Irish beef production fell on the back of tight supplies and lighter carcase weights, down to 600,000 tonnes (3.5%). Production in France and Spain, as two of the largest beef producers in the region, totalled 1.3m (-4%) and 695,000 tonnes (-5%) for 2023. Italy saw large falls in production, down by 17% to 620,000 tonnes. The European Commission expects beef production to fall by a further 1% for 2024, following a drought-ridden 2023.

This tighter supply has given strength to prices, with overall EU steers sitting 22p/kg higher than 2022, at 436.4p/kg in 2023. Since the start of 2024, prices have continued to climb, up to 441.2p/kg for EU steers. France, Spain and Germany have all seen growth in prices from the beginning of the year.

Consumption in the EU is set to fall by around 1% throughout 2024, as consumers continue to be squeezed through persistent cost of living pressures.

EU annual beef production with year-on-year change (thousand tonnes)

Source: Eurostat

Sheep

EU sheep meat production totalled 398,000 tonnes in 2023, a fall of 26,000 tonnes (6%) from 2022. Production in Spain and France fell by 13,000 and 6,500 tonnes, respectively, to 106,000 and 73,000 tonnes for 2023. Countries such as Greece, Italy and Portugal also experienced large declines on the year. The European sheep flock is witnessing structural decline following drought across many Mediterranean countries, with overall lower forage availability and risks of disease. The European Commission estimates that production of sheep meat in the EU will fall by a further 1% in 2024.

EU sheep meat prices have similarly benefited from overall tighter supply across the continent. The EU reference price has grown from the beginning of the year, to average 663.6p/kg for the first 7 weeks of the year. Demand for sheep meat in the EU benefits from increased consumption associated with religious festivals such as Eid and Easter. Therefore, consumption is expected to remain stable for 2024 and perhaps even rally slightly, despite the cost-of-living pressures.

EU annual sheep production with year-on-year change (thousand tonnes)

Source: Eurostat 

You can subscribe to receive Beef and Lamb market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form.