GB cattle populations: dairy-beef calves boost youngstock numbers as suckler continues to contract

Key points:

• At 1 July 2025, the GB beef breeding herd (females over thirty months) had declined by 3% year-on-year to 1.2 million head whilst the GB dairy herd remained static.
• BCMS data indicates year-on-year increases in the number of cattle destined for the beef production system currently aged 0-12 months.
• However, the number of cattle available for beef production aged 12-30 months was down by 3% year-on-year, indicating the supply tightness is here to stay in the medium term.

GB breeding herd

At 1 July, 2025, the GB beef breeding herd (females over thirty months) had declined by 3% year-on-year to 1.2 million head, consistent with the long-term contraction we have seen over the past decade.

Meanwhile, the GB dairy breeding herd stood unchanged on the year at 1.4 million head, potentially supported by strong milk prices and a favourable feed to milk price ratio, encouraging producers to maintain cow numbers.

GB breeding herd populations at 1 July

Source: BCMS, AHDB calculations

Cattle for beef production

We can see year-on-year increases in the number of cattle destined for the beef production system under 12 months of age. Breaking this down into age groups, we have seen a 1.6% increase (19,000 head) in cattle aged 0-6 months and a 3.7% (25,000 head) increase in cattle aged 6-12 months.

Year-on-year change in number of cattle in GB available for beef production, 1 July 2024/2025

(data includes dairy males + beef males and females)

Source: BCMS, AHDB calculations

There are few explanations for the uplift in youngstock numbers. The first of which is that we are simply annualising against a smaller year in 2024. Indeed, if we compare back to the herd profile of July 2023, the number of cattle for beef aged 0-6 months is down by 2% in 2025.

However, recent record high beef prices, and lower feed costs may have encouraged greater calf registrations, causing a rise in numbers in the 0–12-month-old category. BCMS registrations data allows us to explore these movements.

Calf registrations

Data for the first half of 2025 (Jan-Jun; H1) shows a 6% increase in dairy-beef calf registrations versus the same period of 2024. This increase in dairy-beef continues to bolster supplies of youngstock for beef production.

Meanwhile suckler calf registrations continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years. H1 registrations were down 2% year for 2025 versus 2024, compared to a 5% annual decline at the same point in the year prior. The suckler breeding herd remains in contraction, despite strong markets, suggesting that drivers including ongoing challenges around profitability and fragile producer sentiment continue to weigh heavily. This appears to be limiting herd rebuilding on a national level at this time.

H1 (Jan-Jun) GB calf registrations for beef production

Source: BCMS, AHDB calculations

Conclusion

This data suggests that despite some growth in youngstock populations, the supply tightness that has characterised the beef market throughout 2025 is likely to continue for the near future, with ongoing tightness in the immediate pipeline of cattle aged 12-30 months. This limitation in supply stands to lend continued underlying support to prices compared to last year, however wavering consumer demand in the face of steep price inflation may limit upward movement in cattle prices for the foreseeable.

You can subscribe to receive Beef and Lamb market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form.