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2022 Australian sheep forecast
Thursday, 17 February 2022
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) have released their sheep industry forecast for 2022. Production is expected to increase but pressures remain for both domestic and export markets, due to the impact of COVID-19 and rising price inflation.
Production
- forecast national flock to rise by 4.9% to 74.4 million head in 2022, largest flock size for the nation since 2013
- production of lamb is predicted to reach 540,000 tonnes in 2022, an 8% increase on 2021
- by 2023 flock size is forecast to reach 76.3 million head and lamb production 567,000 tonnes
- COVID-19 continues to challenge processors with labour shortages and therefore reduce slaughter capacity
Domestic Market
- Prices have remained stable with retail prices only increasing by 1% in 2021
- Australian inflation rates are currently high
- Consumers are shifting to cheaper meats such as pork & chicken where prices have declined
Export Market
- forecast that by 2031 Australian sheep meat exports will increase by 20% to 488,000 tonnes, largely driven by increased consumption in developing nations
- ongoing issues with transport, air freight and ocean shipping have created substantial delays, lowered reliability and increased costs
- China remained the largest market for exports at 372,000 tonnes
- US remains second largest market with growth potential due to limited domestic supply of sheep meat but maintained higher levels of consumption
- ending of the Qatar subsidy program due to the cost to the Qatari government saw sheep meat exports to the nation drop 56% in 2021
- potential opportunities available to increase exports to the UK once the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is ratified later in the year, however 70% of Australian sheep meat in the UK goes to the food service sector which is still in recovery from COVID-19 disruption
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