England’s cattle and sheep populations hit record lows: Beef and lamb market update

Key points:

• The total sheep population fell 3.8% year-on-year, down to 13.3 million head.
• The female sheep breeding flock contracted by 2.1%, with a sharper 3.9% fall in ewes intended for first-time breeding.
• The total cattle population declined by 1.4% to 4.9 million head.
• Reductions in the beef breeding herd continued to drive contraction, while dairy numbers were comparatively stable.

Sheep

As of 1 June 2025, the English sheep flock totalled 13.3 million head, a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, down almost 520,000 head. This marks another year of contraction in the flock, continuing a long-term downward trend.

Source: Defra

This decline is seen across both the breeding base and across the total flock. The total female breeding flock fell by 2.1% to 6.43 million head, the lowest level in fifteen years. Within this, ewes intended for further breeding dropped by 3.9% to 4.79 million head. The decline likely reflects producers choosing not to retain potential replacements, influenced by the exceptionally strong cull ewe trade in 2025. With average cull ewe prices in England and Wales standing at around £129/head in early July, well above year-earlier levels, selling ewe lambs and shearlings into the slaughter market has been financially attractive compared with holding them back for future breeding.

Number of sheep in England 1 June 2025

Source: Defra

Though the industry has seen sustained firm prices over the past few months, the Defra survey shows that lambs under one year (the best indicator of this year’s lamb crop) have also declined versus last year.  While the crop moving through spring 2025 was temporarily inflated by a larger carry-over of old season lambs (OSLs) from 2024, this effect has now passed, with reduced breeding ewe numbers pointing to a smaller lamb crop. This contraction in the flock supports expectations in the lamb market outlook, where the production forecast for 2025 has already been revised down to 274,000 tonnes.

Contractions in the breeding flock also point to a smaller lamb crop for the 2026 lambing season, as fewer breeding animals will likely limit lamb numbers. It will be important to monitor conditions and intentions as we move into tupping season over the coming months, as these will also have an influence on next year’s crop.

Cattle

The English cattle herd contracted further as of June 1 2025, with the total population at 4.91 million head, down 1.4% year-on-year. This represents the lowest level recorded by the Defra June survey (since 1984), continuing a gradual decline over the past decade.

Source: Defra

The female breeding herd now stands at 1.65 million head, a fall of 1.4%. The beef breeding herd remains under pressure, driving much of this contraction, while the dairy herd was broadly stable year on year. This reflects structural pressures in the beef sector over the past few years where sustained input costs, policy changes and weaker long-term margins continue to drive reductions in the suckler herd, despite the more recent lift in farmgate prices. In contrast, the dairy sector has shown relative resilience in the last year, with more favourable economics supporting breeding numbers.

Male cattle numbers also point to some tightening in supply, with numbers of older and middle-aged (1-2 yrs) males reducing and only a modest lift in calves (<1yr). This shift reflects the growing integration of dairy–beef systems into domestic production, as greater use of sexed semen in the dairy herd increases the proportion of female dairy replacements born and reduces the number of dairy bull calves entering the system. For the period April 2024 to March 2025, the GB use of sexed dairy semen is now 84%, up from 77% two years earlier.

Overall, the contraction of the English herd, particularly within beef, suggests domestic cattle supplies will remain constrained for the remainder of the year and into 2026. We will release further analysis into GB cattle population trends, from BCMS, and the potential impacts on future supply in the coming weeks.

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