2025 crop rapeseed futures prices: Grain Market Daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) ended yesterday at £175.25/t, down £1.30/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell £1.20/t over the same period, to close at £190.25/t.
• Domestic wheat futures closed lower yesterday, mainly following the US market. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures were down 0.5% and were up 0.9% respectively. The euro weakened against the US dollar yesterday, partly supporting Paris futures.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €473.50/t yesterday, down €6.50/t (1.35%) from Tuesday’s close. Winnipeg canola futures (May-25) were down 2.98% yesterday. Palm oil futures are searching for price direction in the face of lower production and weaker export demand. Concerns about US and Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal may lead Canadian growers to reduce new canola plantings.

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From the beginning of March, Paris rapeseed futures fell sharply on tariff concerns and pressure on world oilseed prices. However, between 3 and 12 March, Paris rapeseed futures for old crop (25 May) and new crop fell by £37/t and £25/t respectively. Winnipeg rapeseed futures fell recently as China imposed a 100% tariff on imports of Canadian rapeseed oil and meal.

On 12 March new crop (Nov-25) Paris rapeseed futures closed at a £10.1/t discount to old crop prices (May-25). This is the lowest level for the last seven months. For comparison, the highest level was £46.9/t on 16 December 2024. The main reason for the large difference in December was the strong demand and limited supply of rapeseed on the EU market this season. On the other hand, early estimates of increasing EU rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season put pressure on new crop prices.   

European association COCERAL’s estimates of 11 March lower the forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2025 to 19.22 Mt down from 19.49 Mt in December. However, it’s higher than the 17.22 Mt EU production in 2024. For Ukraine, rapeseed production in 2025 is forecast 7.6% lower than in 2024 due to the influence of drought.   

Looking ahead

Old crop Paris rapeseed futures are under significant pressure from global tariff concerns, especially for Canadian canola oil and meal. New crop Winnipeg canola futures Nov-25 are currently higher than old crop canola futures May-25, so it's possible that the spread between old crop and new crop Paris rapeseed futures could continue to narrow the medium term.

One factor that could put pressure on Paris new crop rapeseed futures prices is the higher forecast EU sunflower production in 2025 compared to 2024.

Paris rapeseed futures have an impact on the UK domestic market. That's why growers need to monitor the volatility of Paris rapeseed futures prices when developing a selling strategy. In one of our next Grain Market Daily, we will look at the seasonality of the Paris rapeseed futures prices.    

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