Meal deal madness: food-to-go market expected to grow by 40% by 2028

Food-to-go has seen continued growth in 2024. Over £48.2bn was spent on food in the out-of-home market, an increase of 14% year-on-year (Kantar Out-of-home, 52 w/e 9 June 2024).

The UK food-to-go market is expected to see positive market growth over the next few years. By 2028, it is projected to increase in value by almost 40% on 2019 levels (IGD).

Value growth has been driven by inflation over the last few years. However, volume growth returned in 2024 and is expected to continue, becoming the key driver of performance from 2025.

Almost half of all food-to-go meal occasions happen as part of daily activity, such as going to work or after exercising. Recent research by IGD highlighted that over half of food-to-go purchases are less routine and are more likely to be spontaneous and unplanned.

With less daily commuting since the pandemic, there are fewer interactions with the out-of-home market.

However, those commuting only once or twice a week can’t resist out-of-home spending. They are also more indulgent when they do eat out, spending up to 18% more per trip than other commuter groups (Kantar Out-of-home, 52w/e 24 December 2023).

Lunch remains a key meal for food-to-go. In the first quarter of 2024, 71% of food-to-go customers purchased for this meal occasion (IGD).

Lunch is well suited for food-to-go, often associated with lower spend than other meal occasions. Whether featuring a classic sandwich or something a little different, such as a slice of pizza, meal deals are popular when it comes to on-the-go lunches, particularly for consumers looking to stick to a budget.

In the 12 w/e 9 June 2024, there were 92.2m food-to-go meal occasions containing beef, lamb and pork. This marked an increase of almost 24% year-on-year. Pork accounted for almost three-quarters of this growth.

Sandwiches represented 41% of all pork-based food-to-go purchases. Pasties were a popular food-to-go option for beef, accounting for almost 13% of volumes purchased (Kantar Out-of-home).

AHDB Retail and Consumer Insight Analyst, Charlotte Forkes-Rees, said:

“The food-to-go market is showing no signs of losing popularity. However, supermarkets and retail chains must continue to adapt to suit changing consumer needs and interests.

"AHDB continue to research these trends and keep retailers informed to support strong demand for our levy payers' produce, ensuring they can also benefit from these trends.

“It’s important for food service providers to demonstrate that food-to-go can mean more than just a meal deal. We’re seeing quick service restaurants joining the lunchtime food-to-go meal occasion, and more and more retailers offering hot options, premium item upgrades and less traditional meal options. 

“Currently, food-to-go is more likely to be purchased by an older consumer (aged 55+), potentially due to increased disposable income meaning they are able to indulge in on-the-go meals more regularly.

"To tempt in younger demographics, retailers could target new product releases with food trends and flavours that may appeal to broader demographics and the younger generations.”